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Bird Flu True to Form - a Pandemic Scenario

Lee tried to stifle a sneeze but couldn't.off-peak hours and public transport was
Invisible to the naked eye, a cloud of almostordered to run 24 hours per day. But despite
five thousand virus-filled droplets launchedwarnings to the contrary, doctor's offices,
into the air at some 150 km/ hour or roughlyhospitals and clinics were overrun. Faces
100 mph. Some passengers in the wide-bodymasked in paper waited for hours in front of
Airbus frowned. The Hong Kong to Londonpharmacies in hope of getting relief. Despite
flight was long and no one wanted to catch aclear instructions from health officials,
cold.panic broke out as folk finally fathomed that
at best only one third of the population had
Lee planned to fill every waking moment ofaccess to anti-viral drugs. In rural areas
his stay in London. A concert at theand smaller towns, there wasn't any chance at
Millennium Dome, dinners at some of theall.
finest hotels, shopping in crowded malls -
"What a chance," Lee thought. All he had toThe  Short-term  Havoc
concentrate on was a few hours in front of
the International Board. It was his job toRumors and half-truths began to circulate
present sales trends in China to the bossescausing public outcry and protests. Because
who were also winging it towards Heathrow,the protests only helped spread the flu,
one of the world's busiest airports. "Thequarantines were set in place. The public was
global executives will get only good newstold to stay at home indefinitely. Vibrant
from me," figured Lee. "Pity I don't feelcities screeched to a halt as public
better  ..."transport shut down. Streets stank as garbage
piled up. Shops were looted and in some cases
The  Diagnosisthose caught coughing were stoned. Safety
services (fire, police, ambulance) were
Lee was exhausted. He had a cough, scratchydisrupted, fires burned out of control.
throat, runny nose and muscle aches. A feverCross-border travel was curtailed killing
started but it wasn't until Lee began havingtourism and all international sports events
difficulties breathing that he decided to getwere cancelled. Food imports were banned
help.creating shortages of meat, vegetables and
wheat. Folk with chronic medical illnesses
Doctors huddled in subdued discussion.couldn't get their medications. Soap and
Experts were rushed in. It was finallydisinfectants - perhaps the simplest and most
determined that Lee's body was fightingeffective fight against the spread of disease
strenuously against two viruses. Lee had- were in short supply; no one had thought to
caught a highly infectious Influenza A virusstock-pile  soap.
- a flu bug. However, at much the same time
he had also picked up a second virus calledThe  Controversy
H5N1. The two viruses had mixed their genes
and formed a hybrid. Since this was now aLocal governments and health organizations
radically new pathogen, Lee had no immunitybegan to squabble over who had the power to
to  it.do what. The question was of legalities: who
would control distribution of anti-viral
Lee was not the only one in this fight.drugs and who would receive those drugs? Army
Infected passengers from Lee's plane frombarracks received attention but prisoners
Hong Kong had connecting flights to majorwere ignored. Families with pets were labeled
cities in most continents. The globalas 'higher risk' groups but no-one knew if
executives Lee had addressed at the officethese families should receive more help or
had also flown home diseased. Sadly, some ofless. As in-fighting became more severe,
the medical staff where Lee was diagnosed haddecision processing became more difficult.
also caught it not to mention the crowds LeeWho should give the daily press briefings?
had interacted with at concerts, restaurantsWho would organize mass cremation? Who would
and on shopping sprees. The so-called Birdfacilitate conferences for global medical
Flu or Avian Influenza had indeed spread itsmeetings?  The  list  grew  rapidly.
wings. It was the start of the first flu
pandemic  of  the  21st  century.The  Waves
The  NewsThe first wave of the pandemic was over in
three months time but not the shock.
Had Lee or any of the others known in time,Bacterial disease such as cholera multiplied
they would have taken anti-viral drugs hopingrapidly with catastrophic results across
to block or at least slow down theAfrica and Asia. The longer-term, global
replication of the virus. At least therecession began with the realization that
severity of some symptoms might have beensupply-lines, manufacturing and
eased not to mention a reduction in thefood-production chains were desperately
duration of sickness. But time had run out -weakened through labor loss. Medical
anti-viral medication needed to be takenfacilities were terribly understaffed. As
within 48 hours of the first stages of theusual, the poor had little chance of aid at
disease.all. And then came the second wave of Avian
flu. It took over a year before the waves of
It wasn't long before Lee was put on asickness  and  death  became  controllable.
respirator in quarantine. It also wasn't long
before the media found out Lee had Bird Flu.Lee actually survived it all. Although he
The public became nervous. The number of flu"started" the pandemic, he also helped "end"
patients - real or imaginary - multipliedit. Doctors used his blood to find the
dramatically but nurses and hospital staffinitial vaccine. Since Lee was also now
were strangely missing ... using overdueimmune, he not only volunteered to help where
holiday time or just not showing up for workhe could and also founded the World
at all. It was announced that schools,Association of Sensible Hygiene (WASH). More
restaurants, and non-essential businessesimportantly, Lee and others like him helped
would be closed. No deadline was given - nodisrupted societies regain their faith and
one knew for sure how long the measures wouldhope and love. Since this was pandemic number
have  to  be  in  place.11 in the last 300 years, history had taught
that it was inevitable that individuals and
The  Public  Announcementcommunities and countries would bounce back
fairly quickly. But a bitter question
Wisely, the public was advised to stock up onremained. Would Lee and the rest of the world
food and water. Newspapers advised people tobe better prepared for the next pandemic? Lee
stock up on toothpaste, toilet paper andwondered that too as he bordered the
treasure (cash). People were told to shop atwide-body Airbus destined for Mexico City.



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