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Bird Flu True to Form - a Pandemic Scenario

Lee tried to stifle a sneeze buthospitals and clinics were overrun.
couldn't. Invisible to the naked eye, aFaces masked in paper waited for hours
cloud of almost five thousandin front of pharmacies in hope of
virus-filled droplets launched into thegetting relief. Despite clear
air at some 150 km/ hour or roughly 100instructions from health officials,
mph. Some passengers in the wide-bodypanic broke out as folk finally fathomed
Airbus frowned. The Hong Kong to Londonthat at best only one third of the
flight was long and no one wanted topopulation had access to anti-viral
catch a cold.drugs. In rural areas and smaller towns,
Lee planned to fill every waking momentthere wasn't any chance at all.
of his stay in London. A concert at theThe Short-term Havoc
Millennium Dome, dinners at some of theRumors and half-truths began to
finest hotels, shopping in crowded mallscirculate causing public outcry and
- "What a chance," Lee thought. All heprotests. Because the protests only
had to concentrate on was a few hours inhelped spread the flu, quarantines were
front of the International Board. It wasset in place. The public was told to
his job to present sales trends in Chinastay at home indefinitely. Vibrant
to the bosses who were also winging itcities screeched to a halt as public
towards Heathrow, one of the world'stransport shut down. Streets stank as
busiest airports. "The global executivesgarbage piled up. Shops were looted and
will get only good news from me,"in some cases those caught coughing were
figured Lee. "Pity I don't feel betterstoned. Safety services (fire, police,
..."ambulance) were disrupted, fires burned
The Diagnosisout of control. Cross-border travel was
Lee was exhausted. He had a cough,curtailed killing tourism and all
scratchy throat, runny nose and muscleinternational sports events were
aches. A fever started but it wasn'tcancelled. Food imports were banned
until Lee began having difficultiescreating shortages of meat, vegetables
breathing that he decided to get help.and wheat. Folk with chronic medical
Doctors huddled in subdued discussion.illnesses couldn't get their
Experts were rushed in. It was finallymedications. Soap and disinfectants -
determined that Lee's body was fightingperhaps the simplest and most effective
strenuously against two viruses. Lee hadfight against the spread of disease -
caught a highly infectious Influenza Awere in short supply; no one had thought
virus - a flu bug. However, at much theto stock-pile soap.
same time he had also picked up a secondThe Controversy
virus called H5N1. The two viruses hadLocal governments and health
mixed their genes and formed a hybrid.organizations began to squabble over who
Since this was now a radically newhad the power to do what. The question
pathogen, Lee had no immunity to it.was of legalities: who would control
Lee was not the only one in this fight.distribution of anti-viral drugs and who
Infected passengers from Lee's planewould receive those drugs? Army barracks
from Hong Kong had connecting flights toreceived attention but prisoners were
major cities in most continents. Theignored. Families with pets were labeled
global executives Lee had addressed atas 'higher risk' groups but no-one knew
the office had also flown home diseased.if these families should receive more
Sadly, some of the medical staff wherehelp or less. As in-fighting became more
Lee was diagnosed had also caught it notsevere, decision processing became more
to mention the crowds Lee had interacteddifficult. Who should give the daily
with at concerts, restaurants and onpress briefings? Who would organize mass
shopping sprees. The so-called Bird Flucremation? Who would facilitate
or Avian Influenza had indeed spread itsconferences for global medical meetings?
wings. It was the start of the first fluThe list grew rapidly.
pandemic of the 21st century.The Waves
The NewsThe first wave of the pandemic was over
Had Lee or any of the others known inin three months time but not the shock.
time, they would have taken anti-viralBacterial disease such as cholera
drugs hoping to block or at least slowmultiplied rapidly with catastrophic
down the replication of the virus. Atresults across Africa and Asia. The
least the severity of some symptomslonger-term, global recession began with
might have been eased not to mention athe realization that supply-lines,
reduction in the duration of sickness.manufacturing and food-production chains
But time had run out - anti-viralwere desperately weakened through labor
medication needed to be taken within 48loss. Medical facilities were terribly
hours of the first stages of theunderstaffed. As usual, the poor had
disease.little chance of aid at all. And then
It wasn't long before Lee was put on acame the second wave of Avian flu. It
respirator in quarantine. It also wasn'ttook over a year before the waves of
long before the media found out Lee hadsickness and death became controllable.
Bird Flu. The public became nervous. TheLee actually survived it all. Although
number of flu patients - real orhe "started" the pandemic, he also
imaginary - multiplied dramatically buthelped "end" it. Doctors used his blood
nurses and hospital staff were strangelyto find the initial vaccine. Since Lee
missing ... using overdue holiday timewas also now immune, he not only
or just not showing up for work at all.volunteered to help where he could and
It was announced that schools,also founded the World Association of
restaurants, and non-essentialSensible Hygiene (WASH). More
businesses would be closed. No deadlineimportantly, Lee and others like him
was given - no one knew for sure howhelped disrupted societies regain their
long the measures would have to be infaith and hope and love. Since this was
place.pandemic number 11 in the last 300
The Public Announcementyears, history had taught that it was
Wisely, the public was advised to stockinevitable that individuals and
up on food and water. Newspapers advisedcommunities and countries would bounce
people to stock up on toothpaste, toiletback fairly quickly. But a bitter
paper and treasure (cash). People werequestion remained. Would Lee and the
told to shop at off-peak hours andrest of the world be better prepared for
public transport was ordered to run 24the next pandemic? Lee wondered that too
hours per day. But despite warnings toas he bordered the wide-body Airbus
the contrary, doctor's offices,destined for Mexico City.



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