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Bird Flu True to Form - a Pandemic Scenario

Lee tried to stifle a sneeze but paper waited for hours in front of
couldn't. Invisible to the naked eye, a pharmacies in hope of getting relief.
cloud of almost five thousand Despite clear instructions from health
virus-filled droplets launched into the officials, panic broke out as folk
air at some 150 km/ hour or roughly 100 finally fathomed that at best only one
mph. Some passengers in the wide-body third of the population had access to
Airbus frowned. The Hong Kong to London anti-viral drugs. In rural areas and
flight was long and no one wanted to smaller towns, there wasn't any chance at
catch a cold. all.
Lee planned to fill every waking moment The Short-term Havoc
of his stay in London. A concert at the Rumors and half-truths began to circulate
Millennium Dome, dinners at some of the causing public outcry and protests.
finest hotels, shopping in crowded malls Because the protests only helped spread
- "What a chance," Lee thought. All he the flu, quarantines were set in place.
had to concentrate on was a few hours in The public was told to stay at home
front of the International Board. It was indefinitely. Vibrant cities screeched to
his job to present sales trends in China a halt as public transport shut down.
to the bosses who were also winging it Streets stank as garbage piled up. Shops
towards Heathrow, one of the world's were looted and in some cases those
busiest airports. "The global executives caught coughing were stoned. Safety
will get only good news from me," figured services (fire, police, ambulance) were
Lee. "Pity I don't feel better ..." disrupted, fires burned out of control.
The Diagnosis Cross-border travel was curtailed killing
Lee was exhausted. He had a cough, tourism and all international sports
scratchy throat, runny nose and muscle events were cancelled. Food imports were
aches. A fever started but it wasn't banned creating shortages of meat,
until Lee began having difficulties vegetables and wheat. Folk with chronic
breathing that he decided to get help. medical illnesses couldn't get their
Doctors huddled in subdued discussion. medications. Soap and disinfectants -
Experts were rushed in. It was finally perhaps the simplest and most effective
determined that Lee's body was fighting fight against the spread of disease -
strenuously against two viruses. Lee had were in short supply; no one had thought
caught a highly infectious Influenza A to stock-pile soap.
virus - a flu bug. However, at much the The Controversy
same time he had also picked up a second Local governments and health
virus called H5N1. The two viruses had organizations began to squabble over who
mixed their genes and formed a hybrid. had the power to do what. The question
Since this was now a radically new was of legalities: who would control
pathogen, Lee had no immunity to it. distribution of anti-viral drugs and who
Lee was not the only one in this fight. would receive those drugs? Army barracks
Infected passengers from Lee's plane from received attention but prisoners were
Hong Kong had connecting flights to major ignored. Families with pets were labeled
cities in most continents. The global as 'higher risk' groups but no-one knew
executives Lee had addressed at the if these families should receive more
office had also flown home diseased. help or less. As in-fighting became more
Sadly, some of the medical staff where severe, decision processing became more
Lee was diagnosed had also caught it not difficult. Who should give the daily
to mention the crowds Lee had interacted press briefings? Who would organize mass
with at concerts, restaurants and on cremation? Who would facilitate
shopping sprees. The so-called Bird Flu conferences for global medical meetings?
or Avian Influenza had indeed spread its The list grew rapidly.
wings. It was the start of the first flu The Waves
pandemic of the 21st century. The first wave of the pandemic was over
The News in three months time but not the shock.
Had Lee or any of the others known in Bacterial disease such as cholera
time, they would have taken anti-viral multiplied rapidly with catastrophic
drugs hoping to block or at least slow results across Africa and Asia. The
down the replication of the virus. At longer-term, global recession began with
least the severity of some symptoms might the realization that supply-lines,
have been eased not to mention a manufacturing and food-production chains
reduction in the duration of sickness. were desperately weakened through labor
But time had run out - anti-viral loss. Medical facilities were terribly
medication needed to be taken within 48 understaffed. As usual, the poor had
hours of the first stages of the disease. little chance of aid at all. And then
It wasn't long before Lee was put on a came the second wave of Avian flu. It
respirator in quarantine. It also wasn't took over a year before the waves of
long before the media found out Lee had sickness and death became controllable.
Bird Flu. The public became nervous. The Lee actually survived it all. Although he
number of flu patients - real or "started" the pandemic, he also helped
imaginary - multiplied dramatically but "end" it. Doctors used his blood to find
nurses and hospital staff were strangely the initial vaccine. Since Lee was also
missing ... using overdue holiday time or now immune, he not only volunteered to
just not showing up for work at all. It help where he could and also founded the
was announced that schools, restaurants, World Association of Sensible Hygiene
and non-essential businesses would be (WASH). More importantly, Lee and others
closed. No deadline was given - no one like him helped disrupted societies
knew for sure how long the measures would regain their faith and hope and love.
have to be in place. Since this was pandemic number 11 in the
The Public Announcement last 300 years, history had taught that
Wisely, the public was advised to stock it was inevitable that individuals and
up on food and water. Newspapers advised communities and countries would bounce
people to stock up on toothpaste, toilet back fairly quickly. But a bitter
paper and treasure (cash). People were question remained. Would Lee and the rest
told to shop at off-peak hours and public of the world be better prepared for the
transport was ordered to run 24 hours per next pandemic? Lee wondered that too as
day. But despite warnings to the he bordered the wide-body Airbus destined
contrary, doctor's offices, hospitals and for Mexico City.
clinics were overrun. Faces masked in




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