| Travel is a big sophisticated business. But, | | | | monthly weekly and daily timing variables and |
| are airfare ticket prices "rational"? You | | | | you now have the "concept" of forecasting |
| want to travel and enjoy cool exotic places | | | | imbedded in these new data mining travel |
| or lower business expenses. Whatever. The | | | | services such as FareCompare.com, or |
| money and online search problem is "how do I | | | | |
| actually find the lowest airfare ticket | | | | How Much Data Is Being "Mined"? |
| price"? Your dilemma? Do I book now...or | | | | |
| book later in order to get the best airfare | | | | Over two years of industry data is being |
| deal? | | | | sifted and sorted, in order to reveal |
| | | | patterns regarding day-by-day airfare price |
| One answer may lie in the development of new | | | | variability. Your dealing with billions of |
| high tech web-based travel analysts, who are | | | | data points, all coming into an "ordered |
| beginning to crack the code to the Holy Grail | | | | system" where past airfare pricing "facts" |
| of travel pricing, namely the complicated | | | | can be manipulated in order to provide |
| "demand" side of travel. Good news for | | | | credible forecasting of future demand-side |
| travelers is that these new online data | | | | pricing. Translated? Yesterday's airfare |
| mining number crunching services can increase | | | | prices give you the leg-up advantage in |
| your odds to get cheap airfare deals that | | | | predicting when to buy your ticket, and the |
| perfectly match your timing...and pocket book | | | | likelihood when the best airfare deals will |
| needs. | | | | be offered on the travel route you have in |
| | | | mind. |
| Airfare Ticket Prices In Constant Supply | | | | |
| Demand Flux. | | | | What Other Impact Factors Drive Airfare |
| | | | Ticket Price? |
| The only time an airfare ticket is "set" is | | | | |
| when you lock-in and commit to buy. The rest | | | | Weather and seasonal issues, conventions, |
| of the time? As often as three times each | | | | high school and college graduation periods, |
| and every day, and for over 70,000 defined | | | | sporting events along with more than 100 |
| travel markets throughout the USA and Canada, | | | | factors, some direct and some intuitive, that |
| airfare ticket prices will move up or down | | | | go into the programming side of online |
| based entirely on whether seats sell or | | | | airfare ticket analysis services. Increasing |
| remain open. | | | | jet fuel prices, internecine business pricing |
| | | | wars between airlines, wars, freakish weather |
| International airfare rates are even more | | | | are not included in the modeling programs. |
| "fluid", easily changing up to five times | | | | |
| daily in a dance between supply of seats | | | | Once You've Got The Best Airfare Price...Who |
| versus demand buyers. No surprise that the | | | | Sells You The Ticket? |
| economic rule-of-thumb airfare price strategy | | | | |
| is 1st-grade simple...the more people who | | | | Not the data guys. Once you've got the |
| want to travel to the same spot, then up goes | | | | "answer" to your travel route-date, you're |
| the airfare price. | | | | kicked back into the market where you can |
| | | | contact airfare consolidators like or ...or |
| Catch 22 - How To Predict Lowest Airfare | | | | go directly to the airlines. |
| Ticket Deals When You Need It. | | | | |
| | | | What Sort Of Airfare Savings Can Travelers |
| Because most airlines now offer online web | | | | Get? |
| sites with both the appearance and reality of | | | | |
| real-time pricing and airfare information, | | | | A well supported high volume travel route |
| consumers are ill-equipped to determine what | | | | such as St. Louis to Atlanta might show |
| is truly a "normal" or "fair" prices. A "low | | | | Airline A's everyday airfare ticket price at |
| airfare ticket price" might turn out to | | | | $400. Meanwhile, an arch-rival Airline B's |
| simply be whatever the airline happens to say | | | | discount airfare ticket prices over the same |
| when you're online. | | | | route may fluctuate from $100 to $400. The |
| | | | challenge is...how do you find the airline |
| Tracking Pricing Changes - Like Weather | | | | with the deal that's right for you? |
| Predicting. | | | | |
| | | | What About Airports And Reputations For |
| Some smarts are involved in forecasting | | | | Flight Delays? |
| future discount airfare ticket price ranges. | | | | |
| Divide total number of air passenger miles by | | | | Got the lowest airfare ticket? Sure...but |
| the total number of passengers (207 million | | | | what if you waste gobs of time waiting for |
| travelers just between June 1 to August | | | | incoming or outgoing flights? Some traffic |
| 31)...mix in the total number of | | | | hubs, like New York, regularly create delays |
| destinations...multiply by the number of | | | | in over 40% of all flights. |
| prices quoted for each route...adjust for | | | | |